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http://www.pokernews.com/strategy/book-the-win-advice-on-breaking-a-losing-streak-24184.htm

This is part two of my introduction to Bayes' theorem for poker players. http://www.pokernews.com/strategy/call-or-fold-bayes-theorem-poker-uncertainty-2-24133.htm

Question on his Facebook page: Okay, so you're playing hold 'em and all cards have been dealt. As you begin the final betting round, you realize that you have the lowest-ranking hand that can't possibly be beat or even tied. What's on the board and what cards do you hold? See here for his answer and explanation. But try to work it out for yourself first. It's a worthwhile brain exercise. (I got it right. Did you?)

Today I went to Harrah's Cherokee today. Got a seat right away in a $1/2 NLHE game at one of the PokerPro electronic tables. I bought in for $200. On my third or fourth hand, I had 3d-6d one off the button. I raised to $8, because The Spanish Inquisition is awesome. The button called (sitting on $450 or so), as did the big blind (short stack). Flop: 3s-7c-3c. Yahtzee! BB checked. I bet $12. Button called. Big blind check-raised all-in for $22. It wasn't enough to reopen the betting, so I could only call. Button called, too. Turn: Qh. The pot was about $90. I bet $60. I was surprised when the button called. I didn't think most people would call that with a flush draw. I thought his most likely holding was a medium pair--something between 8s and jacks. If so, he was calling only as a bluff-catcher. River: 7d. This was problematic. If the button had called me on the flop and turn because he had a 7, he had just backed into a bigger full house than mine. But I decided that was...

This two-part article (Part One now, Part Two next week) is one I've had in mind to write for a year or more. But it was a daunting challenge. Bayes' Theorem is a difficult mathematical concept for people to grasp, because it often leads to counterintuitive results. But I finally spent enough time over the last few days to put together what I hope is a reasonably user-friendly introduction to the subject. Next week we get to how it applies to poker. http://www.pokernews.com/strategy/call-or-fold-bayes-theorem-poker-uncertainty-24077.htm

Four steps to success in unfamiliar poker variants: http://www.pokernews.com/strategy/four-steps-to-success-in-unfamiliar-poker-variants-24021.htm

This week, the boys talk about my recent visit to the Salt Lake City home game, one of my recent PokerNews articles , and other stuff. Listen here, with show notes: http://www.toppair.net/pls/apex/f?p=TOPPAIR:1:0 There will be more about that Utah home-game experience in my next PokerNews article, probably coming out Monday.

This one is about how we fail to improve at both driving and poker because of the lack of effective feedback mechanisms. http://www.pokernews.com/strategy/you-might-play-poker-as-badly-as-you-drive-but-how-can-you-k-23977.htm